Header

Suche
Soziologisches Institut

«A Simulation Approach for the Spatial Testing of Migration Theories»: new article in press by Micol Matilde Morellini

In a new publication, Micol Matilde Morellini introduces a simulation-based method for evaluating the spatial accuracy of migration theories. Morellini’s approach reveals how well theories capture the spatial organization of these movements.

A Simulation Approach for the Spatial Testing of Migration Theories

Micol Matilde Morellini (SUZ)

First published online March, 6 2026 as an unedited version of this manuscript in European Journal of Population

doi.org/10.1007/s10680-026-09770-0

Abstract
Migration research has long been divided between studies of drivers, which focus on the factors shaping migration flows, and studies of patterns, which describe how these flows are organised across space. Theories of migration typically identify and operationalise drivers, but are often less explicit about patterns. As a result, migration theories are usually evaluated using goodness-of-fit measures that assess explanatory power but pay limited attention to spatial accuracy. This article addresses this limitation by introducing a simulation-based procedure to evaluate the spatial accuracy of migration theories. Starting from an observed system of origin–destination migration flows, the procedure generates synthetic systems that reflect the spatial outcomes implied by a given theory. These synthetic migration systems are then compared to the observed case to assess spatial accuracy. The procedure is applied to intra-European migration flows from 2002 to 2021 and illustrated using two long-standing migration theories: the gravity model and migration systems theory. Both theories achieve high explanatory power under conventional goodness-of-fit metrics, and migration systems theory performs better overall. However, the empirical analysis shows that both theories fail to reproduce important spatial features of the European context, including the high level of reciprocity of flows and the observed migration profiles of Eastern and Northern European countries. These findings highlight how strong statistical fit does not imply accurate spatial representation. Evaluating migration theories through their implied spatial outcomes provides new insights into their limitations and offers a complementary and integrative tool for migration research.

Weiterführende Informationen

About

Micol Matilde Morellini is a PhD student in Sociology and Demography at the University of Oxford and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. In March 2024 she joined Professor Per Block's team as a research assistant. Micol’s research lies at the intersection of sociology, demography, and migration studies.

Data & Code

The article is accompanied by a replication package accessible on GitHub. Please note that the data for the empirical analyses are produced and maintained by third parties and therefore cannot be uploaded directly to a private repository. The replication package on GitHub documents how each dataset can be accessed to allow for a complete replication of the empirical results.

Instagram LinkedIn Bluesky Mail

Zurück zur News-Übersicht

Unterseiten